School of Geography and the Environment

Myles Allen is Professor of Geosystem Science in the School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, and Head of the Climate Dynamics Group in the University's Department of Physics. His research focuses on how human and natural influences on climate contribute to observed climate change and risks of extreme weather and in quantifying their implications for long-range climate forecasts.

Myles has served on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change as lead author on Detection of Climate Change and Attribution of Causes for the 3rd Assessment in 2001 and as review editor on Global Climate Projections for the 4th Assessment in 2007.

He proposed the use of Probabilistic Event Attribution to quantify the contribution of human and other external influences on climate to specific individual weather events and leads the www.climateprediction.net project, using distributed computing to run the world's largest ensemble climate modelling experiments.

• Group Leader, Climate Dynamics Group, Department of Physics, University of Oxford. Responsible for climate modelling and attribution, comprising on average 4 post-docs and 5 doctoral students over the past three years.
• Principal Investigator, www.climateprediction.net - distributed computing for global climate research, collaborative project (2000 present, overall budget c. £4m), performing large-scale Monte Carlo simulation of climate change 1900 - 2100 using idle CPU on personal computers volunteered by the general public.
• Lead Author, Detection of Climate Change and Attribution of Causes, Chapter 12 of the IPCC WG1 Third Assessment. Review Editor, Global Climate Projections Chapter 10 of the IPCC WG1 Fourth Assessment. Lead author, Detection and Attribution of Climate Change: from Global to Regional;, Chapter 10 of the IPCC WG1 Fifth Assessment.
• Member of the US NOAA/Dept of Energy International Advisory Group on the Detection and Attribution of Anthropogenic Climate Change.

Recent Graduate Research Students (since 2006)

• Allen, M.R., Peters, G.P., Shine, K.P., et al. (2022) Indicate separate contributions of long-lived and short-lived greenhouse gases in emission targets. npj climate and atmospheric science, 5(5).
• Fankhauser, S., Smith, S.M., Allen, M. et al. (2021) The meaning of net zero and how to get it right. Nature Climate Change.
• Lee, D.S., Fahey, D.W., Skowron, A., Allen, M.R., Burkhardt, U., Chen, Q., Doherty, S.J., Freeman, S., Forster, P.M., Fuglestvedt, J., Gettelman, A., De León, R.R., Lim, L.L., Lund, M.T., Millar, R.J., Owen, B., Penner, J.E., Pitari, G., Prather, M.J., Sausen, R. and Wilcox, L.J. (2021) The contribution of global aviation to anthropogenic climate forcing for 2000 to 2018. Atmospheric Environment, 244. 117834.
• Reiner, D.M., Hannula, I., Koljonen, T., Allen, M., Lucht, W., Guillén-Gosálbez, G. and Mac Dowell, N. (2021) Europe's 'green deal' and carbon dioxide removal. Nature, 589(7840).
• Smith, M.A., Cain, M. and Allen, M.R. (2021) Further improvement of warming-equivalent emissions calculation. npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 4(19).
• Stuart-Smith, R.F., Roe, G.H., Li, S. and Allen, M.R. (2021) Increased outburst flood hazard from Lake Palcacocha due to human-induced glacier retreat. Nature Geoscience, 14: 85-90. Unofficial Spanish Translation.
• Uhe, P., Mitchell, D., Bates, P.D., Allen, M.R., Betts, R.A., Huntingford, C., King, A.D., Sanderson, B.M. and Shiogama, H. (2021) Method uncertainty is essential for reliable confidence statements of precipitation projections. Journal of Climate, 34(3).
• Zakkour, P.D., Heidug, W., Howard, A., Stuart Haszeldine, R., Allen, M.R. and Hone, D. (2021) Progressive supply-side policy under the Paris Agreement to enhance geological carbon storage. Climate Policy, 21(1).
• Allen, M., Axelsson, K., Caldecott, B., Hale, T., Hepburn, C., Hickey, C., Mitchell-Larson, E., Malhi, Y., Otto, F., Seddon, N. and Smith, S. (2020) The Oxford Principles for Net Zero Aligned Carbon Offsetting. Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment, Oxford.
• Klöwer, M., Hopkins, D., Allen, M. and Higham, J. (2020) An analysis of ways to decarbonize conference travel after COVID-19. Nature, 583: 356-359.
• Leach, N.J., Li, S., Sparrow, S., van Oldenborgh, G.J., Lott, F.C., Weisheimer, A. and Allen, M.R. (2020) Anthropogenic influence on the 2018 summer warm spell in Europe: The impact of different spatio-temporal scales. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 101(1).
• Lynch, J., Cain, M., Pierrehumbert, R. and Allen, M. (2020) Demonstrating GWP: A means of reporting warming-equivalent emissions that captures the contrasting impacts of short- and long-lived climate pollutants. Environmental Research Letters, 15(4). 44023.
• Millar, R.J. and Allen, M.R. (2020) Chapter 2: Understanding the role of CCS deployment in meeting ambitious climate goals. RSC Energy and Environment Series, 2020-January(26).
• Mitchell, D., Allen, M., Ebi, K.L., Gasparrini, A., Heaviside, C., Lo, Y.T.E. and Vicedo-Cabrera, A.M. (2020) Concerns over calculating injury-related deaths associated with temperature. Nature Medicine, 26(12).
• Baker, H.S., Woollings, T., Forest, C.E. and Allen, M.R. (2019) The linear sensitivity of the north atlantic oscillation and eddy-driven jet to SSTs. Journal of Climate, 32(19).
• Baker, H.S., Woollings, T., Mbengue, C., Allen, M.R., O'Reilly, C.H., Shiogama, H. and Sparrow, S. (2019) Forced summer stationary waves: the opposing effects of direct radiative forcing and sea surface warming. Climate Dynamics, 53(7).
• Cain, M., Lynch, J., Allen, M.R., Fuglestvedt, J.S., Frame, D.J. and Macey, A.H. (2019) Improved calculation of warming-equivalent emissions for short-lived climate pollutants. npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 2. 29.
• Friedlingstein, P., Allen, M., Canadell, J.G., Peters, G.P. and Seneviratne, S.I. (2019) Comment on "The global tree restoration potential". Science, 366(6463). aay8060.
• Huntingford, C., Mitchell, D., Kornhuber, K., Coumou, D., Osprey, S. and Allen, M. (2019) Assessing changes in risk of amplified planetary waves in a warming world. Atmospheric Science Letters.
• Kumari, S., Haustein, K., Javid, H., Burton, C., Allen, M.R., Paltan, H., Dadson, S. and Otto, F.E.L. (2019) Return period of extreme rainfall substantially decreases under 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C warming: a case study for Uttarakhand, India. Environmental Research Letters, 14(4).
• Marthews, T.R., Jones, R.G., Dadson, S.J., Otto, F.E.L., Mitchell, D., Guillod, B.P. and Allen, M.R. (2019) The impact of human‐induced climate change on regional drought in the Horn of Africa. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 124(8): 4549-4566.
• Smith, C.J., Forster, P.M., Allen, M., Fuglestvedt, J., Millar, R.J., Rogelj, J. and Zickfeld, K. (2019) Current fossil fuel infrastructure does not yet commit us to 1.5 °C warming. Nature Communications, 10.
• Allen, M.R., Shine, K.P., Fuglestvedt, J.S., Millar, R.J., Cain, M. and Frame, D.J. (2018) A solution to the misrepresentations of CO2-equivalent emissions of short-lived climate pollutants under ambitious mitigation. Climate and Atmospheric Science.
• Baker, H., Woolings, T., Mbengue, C.O., Allen, M.R., O'Reilly, C., Shiogama, H. and Sparrow, S. (2018) Forced Summer Stationary Waves: The Opposing Effects of Direct Radiative Forcing and Sea Surface Warming. American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2018.
• Baker, H.S., Millar, R.J., Karoly, D.J., Beyerle, U., Guillod, B.P., Mitchell, D., Shiogama, H., Sparrow, S., Woolings, T. and Allen, M. (2018) Higher CO2 concentrations increase extreme event risk in a 1.5 °C world. Nature Climate Change.
• Fuglestvedt, J., Rogelj, J., Millar, R.J., Allen, M., Boucher, O., Cain, M., Forster, P.M., Kriegler, E. and Shindell, D. (2018) Implications of possible interpretations of ‘greenhouse gas balance’ in the Paris Agreement. Philisophical Transactions of the Royal Society A, 376(2119).
• Guillod, B.P., Jones, R.G., Dadson, S.J., Coxon, G., Bussi, G., Freer, J., Kay, A.L., Massey, N.R., Sparrow, S.N., Wallom, D.C.H., Allen, M.R., and Hall, J.W. (2018) A large set of potential past, present and future hydro-meteorological time series for the UK. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 22: 611-634.
• Millar, R.J., Fuglestvedt, J.S., Friedlingstein, P., Rogelj, J., Grubb, M.J., Matthews, D., Skeie, R.B., Forster, P.M., Frame, D.J. and Allen, M.R. (2018) Author Correction: Emission budgets and pathways consistent with limiting warming to 1.5 °C. Nature Geosciences.
• Millar, R.J., Hepburn, C., Beddington, J. and Allen, M. (2018) Principles to guide investment towards a stable climate. Nature Climate Change, 8: 2-4.
• Mitchell, D., Allen, M., Hall, J.W., Muller, B., Rajamani, L. and Le Quere, C. (2018) The myriad challenges of the Paris Agreement. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A, 376(2119).
• Mitchell, D., Heaviside, C., Schaller, N., Allen, M., Ebi, K.L., Fischer, E.M., Gasparrini, A., Harrington, L., Kharin, V., Shiogama, H., Sillmann, J., Sippel, S. and Vardoulakis, S. (2018) Extreme heat-related mortality avoided under Paris Agreement goals. Nature Climate Change, 8: 551-553.
• Mitchell, D., Heaviside, C., Schaller, N., Allen, M.R., Ebi, K., Fischer, E.M., Gasparrini, A., Harrington, L.J., Kharin, V.V., Shiogama, H., Sillmann, J., Sippel, S. and Vardoulakis, S. (2018) Avoided heat-related mortality under targeted Paris Agreement scenarios. American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2018.
• Paltan., H., Allen, M., Haustein, K., Fuldauer, L. and Dadson, S. (2018) Global implications of 1.5 °C and 2 °C warmer worlds on extreme river flows. Environmental Research Letters.
• Pretis, F., Schwarz, M., Tang, K., Haustein, K. and Allen, M.R. (2018) Uncertain impacts on economic growth when stabilizing global temperatures at 1.5°C or 2°C warming..
• Rimi, R., Haustein, K., Barbour, E.J., Sparrow, S.N., Li, S., Wallom, D.C.H. and Allen, M. (2018) Risks of seasonal extreme rainfall events in Bangladesh under 1.5 and 2.0 degrees’ warmer worlds – How anthropogenic aerosols change the story. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences: 1-23.
• Rimi, R.H., Haustein, K., Barbour, E.J. and Allen, M.R. (2018) Risks of pre-monsoon extreme rainfall events of Bangladesh: is anthropogenic climate change playing a role? Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 100(1): 61-65.
• Rimi, R.H., Haustein, K., Barbour, E.J., Jones, R.G., Sparrow, S.N. and Allen, M.R. (2018) Evaluation of a large ensemble regional climate modelling system for extreme weather events analysis over Bangladesh. International Journal of Climatology, 39(6): 2845-2861.
• Seneviratne, S.I., Rogelj, J., Seferian, R., Wartenburger, R., Allen, M.R., Cain, M., Millar, R.J., Ebi, K.L., Ellis, N., Hoegh-Guldberg, O., Payne, A.J., Schleussner, C., Tschakert, P. and Warren, R.F. (2018) The many possible climates from the Paris Agreement’s aim of 1.5 °C warming. Nature, 558: 41-49.
• Supran, G., Mulvey, K., Frumhoff, P.C., Allen, M.R., Marjanac, S. and Alexander, J. (2018) Public disclosures and investment policies as levers to limit fossil fuel extraction consistent with less than 2 °C warming. American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2018.
• Watson, P., Ingram, W., Sparrow, S.N., Wilson, S., Jones, R., Mitchell, D., Woollings, T. and Allen, M.R. (2018) A 60km-resolution GCM for Large-ensemble Climate Simulations in climateprediction.net. American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2018.
• Ekwurzel, B., Boneham, J., Dalton, M.W., Heede, R., Mera, R.J., Allen, M.R. and Frumhoff, P.C. (2017) The rise in global atmospheric CO₂, surface temperature, and sea level from emissions traced to major carbon producers. Climatic Change: 1-12.
• Guillod, B.P., Jones, R.G., Bowery, A., Haustein, K., Massey, N.R., Mitchell, D.M., Otto, F.E.L., Sparrow, S.N., Uhe, P., Wallom, D.C.H., Wilson, S. and Allen, M.R. (2017) weather@home 2: validation of an improved global - regional climate modelling system. Geoscientific Model Development, 10: 1849-1872.
• Haustein, K., Allen, M.R., Forster, P.M., Otto, F.E.L., Mitchell, D.M., Matthews, H.D. and Frame, D.J. (2017) A real-time Global Warming Index. Nature Scientific Reports, 7(15417).
• Millar, R.J., Fuglestvedt, J.S., Friedlingstein, P., Rogeli, J., Grubb, M.J., Matthews, H.D., Skeie, R.B., Forster, P.M., Frame, D.J. and Allen, M.R. (2017) Emission budgets and pathways consistent with limiting warming to 1.5 °C. Nature geoscience.
• Millar, R.J., Nicholls, Z.R., Friedlingstein, P. and Allen, M.R. (2017) A modified impulse-response representation of the global near-surface air temperature and atmospheric concentration response to carbon dioxide emissions. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 17: 7213-7228.
• Mitchell, D., AchutaRao, K., Allen, M., Bethke, I., Beierle, U., Ciavarella, A., Forster, P.M., Fuglestvedt, J., Gillett, N., Haustein, K., Ingram, W., Iversen, T., Karin, V., Klingaman, N., Massey, N., Fischer, E., Schleussner, C., Sparrow, S., Stone, D., The, P., Wallom, D., Wehner, M. and Zaaboul, R. (2017) Half a degree additional warming, prognosis and projected impacts (HAPPI): background and experimental design. Geoscientific Model Development, 10: 71-583.
• Otto, F.E.L., Skeie, R.B., Fuglestvedt, J.S., Berntsen, T., Allen, M.R. (2017) Assigning historic responsibility for extreme weather events. Nature Climate Change, 7.
• Parker, H.R., Boyd, E., Cornforth, R.J., James, R., Otto, F.E.L. and Allen, M.R. (2017) Stakeholder perceptions of event attribution in the loss and damage debate. Climate Policy, 17(4): 533-550.
• Pretis, F., Schwarz, N., Tang, K., Haustein, K. and Allen, M. (2017) Uncertain Impacts on Economic Growth When Stabilizing Global Temperatures at 1.5C or 2C Warming. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A.
• Rupp, D.E., Li, S., Mote, P.W., Shell, K.M., Massey, N., Sparrow, S.N., Wallom, D.C.H. and Allen, M. (2017) Seasonal spatial patterns of projected anthropogenic warming in complex terrain: a modeling study of the western US. Climate Dynamics, 48(7): 2191-2213.
• Shine, K., Cain, M. and Allen, M. (2017) Climate metrics under ambitious mitigation. Oxford Martin School, Oxford, UK.
• Skeie, R.B., Fuglestvedt, J., Berntsen, T., Peters, G.P., Andrew, R., Allen, M. and Kallbekken, S. (2017) Perspective has a strong effect on the calculation of historical contributions to global warming. Environmental Research Letters, 12(2).
• Allen, M. (2016) Drivers of peak warming in a consumption-maximizing world. Nature Climate Change, 6: 684-686.
• Allen, M.R., Fuglestvedt, J.S., Shine, K.P., Reisinger, A., Pierrehumbert R.T and Forster, P.M. (2016) New use of global warming potentials to compare cumulative and short-lived climate pollutants. Nature Climate Change, 6: 773-776.
• Hallegatte, S., Rogelj, J., Allen, M., Clarke, L., Edenhofer, O., Field, C.B., Friedlingstein, P., van Kesteren, L., Knutti, R., Mach, K.J., Mastrandrea, M., Michel, A., Minx, J., Oppenheimer, M., Plattner, G., Riahi, K., Schaeffer, M., Stocker, T.F. and van Vuuren, D.P. (2016) Mapping the climate change challenge. nATURE cLIMATE cHANGE, 6: 663-668.
• Haustein, K., Otto, F.E.L., Uhe, P., Schaller, N., Allen, M.R., Hermanson, L., Christidis, N., McLean, P. and Cullen, H. (2016) Real-time extreme weather event attribution with forecast seasonal SSTs. Environmental Research Letters, 11(6). 064006.
• Massey, N., Allen, M. and Hall, J. (2016) Large Ensembles of Regional Climate Projections. EGU General Assembly 2016, held 17-22 April, 2016 in Vienna Austria.
• Millar, R., Allen, M., Rogelj, J. and Friedlingstein, P. (2016) The cumulative carbon budget and its implications. Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 32(2): 323-342.
• Mitchell, D., Davini, P., Harvey, B., Massey, N., Haustein, K., Woolings, T., Jones, R., Otto, F., Guillod, B., Sparrow, S., Wallom, D. and Allen, M. (2016) Assessing mid-latitude dynamics in extreme event attribution systems. Climate Dynamics, 48(306): 1-13.
• Mitchell, D., James, R., Forster, P.M., Betts, R.A., Shiogama, H. and Allen, M. (2016) Realizing the impacts of a 1.5°C warmer world. Nature Climate Change, 6: 735-737.
• Mitchell, D.M., Heaviside, C., Vardoulakis, S., Huntingford, C., Masato, G., Guillod, B.P., Frumhoff, P.C., Bowery, A. and Allen, M.R. (2016) Attributing human mortality during extreme heat waves to anthropogenic climate change. Environmental Research Letters, 11(7). 074006.
• Mote, P., Rupp, D., Li, S. Sharp, D. Otto, F., Uhe, P., Xiao, M., Lettermaier, D., Cullen, H. and Allen, M. (2016) Perspectives on the causes of exceptionally low 2015 snowpack in the western United States. Geophysical Research Letters, 43(20): 10980-10988.
• Otto, F.E.L., van Oldenborgh, G.J., Eden, J., Stott, P.A., Karoly, D.J. and Allen, M.R. (2016) The attribution question. Nature Climate Change, 6: 813-816.
• Parker, H.R., Cornforth, R.J., Suarez, P., Allen, M.R., Boyd, E., James, R., Jones, R.G., Otto, F.E.L., Walton, P. (2016) Using a Game to Engage Stakeholders in Extreme Event Attribution Science. International Journal of Disaster Risk Science, 7(4): 353-365.
• Rogelj, J., Schaeffer, M., Friedlingstein, P., Gillett, N.P., van Vuuren, D.P., Riahi, K., Allen, M. and Knutti, R. (2016) Differences between carbon budget estimates unravelled. Nature Climate Change, 6: 245-252.
• Schaller, N., Kay, A.L., Lamb, R., Massey, N.R., van Oldenborgh, G.J., Otto, F.E.L., Sparrow, S.N., Vautard, R., Yiou, P., Ashpole, I., Bowery, A., Crooks, S.M., Haustein, K., Huntingford, C., Ingram, W.J., Jones, R.G., Legg, T., Miller, J., Skeggs, J., Wallom, D., Weisheimer, A., Wilson, S., Stott, P.A. and Allen, M.R. (2016) Human influence on climate in the 2014 southern England winter floods and their impacts. Nature Climate Change, 6: 627-634.
• Shiogama, H., Stone, D., Emori, S., Takahashi, K., Mori, S., Maeda, A., Ishizaki, Y. and Allen, M.R. (2016) Predicting future uncertainty constraints on global warming projections. Scientific Reports, 6.
• Sippel, S., Otto, F., Forkel, M., Allen, M., Guillod, B., Heimann, M., Reichstein, M., Seneviratne, S., Thonicke, K. and Mahecha, M. (2016) A novel bias correction methodology for climate impact simulations. Earth System Dynamics, 7(1): 71-88.
• Uhe, P., Otto, F.E.L., Haustein, K., van Oldenborgh, G.J., King, A.D., Wallom, D.C.H., Allen, M.R. and Cullen, H. (2016) Comparison of methods: Attributing the 2014 record European temperatures to human influences. Geophysical Research Letters, 43(16): 8685-8693.
• Allen, M., Haszeldine, S., Hepburn, C., Le Quere, C. and Millar, R. (2015) Securing the UK’s Energy and Climate Future: Energy Bill 2015. Oxford Martin School, UK.
• Bergaoui, K., Mitchell, D., Zaaboul, R., McDonnell, R., Otto, F.E.L. and Allen, M. (2015) The Contribution of human-induced climate change to the drought of 2014 in the southern Levant region. Explaining Extreme Events of 2014: From a Climate Perspective. Special Supplement to the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society Vol 96, No 12, December 2015, 96(12): 66-70.
• Guillod, B., James, R., Massey, N., Otto, F., Hall, J., Allen, M. (2015) Modelling extreme weather in a changing climate: Potential applications for the insurance industry.
• Huntingford, C., Lowe, J.A., Howarth, N., Bowerman, N.H.A., Gohar, L.K., Otto, A., Lee, D.S., Smith, S.M., den Elzen, M.G.J., van Vuuren, D.P., Millar, R.J. and Allen, M.R. (2015) The implications of carbon dioxide and methane exchange for the heavy mitigation RCP2.6 scenario under two metrics. Environmental Science and Policy, 51: 77-87.
• James, R., Otto, F., Parker, H., Boyd, E., Cornforth, R., Mitchell, D. and Allen, M. (2015) Characterizing loss and damage from climate change. Nature Climate Change, 4: 938-939.
• Li, S., Mote, P.W., Rupp, D.E., Vickers, D., Mera, R. and Allen, M. (2015) Evaluation of a regional climate modeling effort for the western United States using a superensemble from weather@home. Journal of Climate.
• Lopez, A., Suckling, E.B., Otto, F.E.L., Lorenz, A., Rowlands, D. and Allen, M.R. (2015) Towards a typology for constrained climate model forecasts. Climatic Chnge, 132(1): 15-29.
• Massey, N., Jones, R., Otto, F.E.L., Aina, T., Wilson, S., Murphy, J.M., Hassell, D., Yamazaki, Y.H. and Allen, M.R. (2015) Weather@home - development and validation of a very large ensemble modelling system for probabilistic event attribution. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 141(690): 1528-1545.
• Mera, R., Massey, N., Rupp, D.E., Mote, P., Allen, M., Frumhoff, P.C. (2015) Climate change, climate justice and the application of probabilistic event attribution to summer heat extremes in the California Central Valley. Climatic Change, 133(3): 427-438.
• Otto, F.E.L., Boyd, E., Jones, R.G., Cornforth, R.J., James, R., Parker, H.R. and Allen, M.R. (2015) Attribution of extreme weather events in Africa: a preliminary exploration of the science and policy implications. Climatic Change, 132(4): 531-543.
• Otto, F.E.L., Frame, D.J., Otto, A. and Allen, M.R. (2015) Embracing uncertainty in climate change policy. Nature Climate Change, 5: 917-920.
• Otto, F.E.L., Rosier, S.M., Allen, M.R., Massey, N.R., Rye, C.J. and Quintana, J.I. (2015) Attribution analysis of high precipitation events in summer in England and Wales over the last decade. Climatic Change, 132(1): 77-91.
• Parker, H.R., Cornforth, R.J., Boyd, E., James, R., Otto, F.E.L. and Allen, M. (2015) Implications of event attribution for loss and damage policy. Weather, 70(9): 268-273.
• Añel, J.A., López-Moreno, J.I., Otto, F.E.L., Vicente-Serrano, S., Schaller, N., Massey, N., Buisán, S.T. and Allen, M.R. (2014) The extreme snow accumulation in the western Spanish Pyrenees during winter and spring 2013. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 95(9).
• Frame, D.J., Macey, A.H. and Allen, M. (2014) Cumulative emissions and climate policy. Nature Geoscience, 7: 692-693.
• Huntingford, C., Marsh, T., Scaife, A.A., Kendon, E., Hannaford, J., Kay, A., Lockwood, M., Prudhomme, C., Reynard, N., Parry, S., Lowe, J., Screen, J., Ward, H., Roberts, M., Stott, P., Bell, V., Bailey, M., Jenkins, A., Legg, T., Otto, F.E.L., Massey, N., Schaller, N., Slingo, J. and Allen, M.R. (2014) Potential influences on the United Kingdom's floods of winter 2013/14. Nature Climate Change, 4: 769-777.
• Millar, R., Otto, A. Lowe, J. and Allen, M. (2014) Examining uncertainties in equilibrium climate sensitivity and transient climate response using an impulse-response model. EGU General Assembly 2014, held 27 April - 2 May, 2014 in Vienna, Austria.
• Otto, F.E.L., James, R. and Allen, M.R. (2014) The science of attributing extreme weather events and its potential contribution to assessing loss and damage associated with climate change impacts.
• Allen, M. and Stocker, S. (2013) Impact of delay in reducing carbon dioxide emissions. Nature Climate Change, 4: 23-26.
• Allen, M.R., Mitchell, J.F.B. and Stott, P.A. (2013) Test of a decadal climate forecast. Nature Geoscience, 6: 243-244.
• Bowerman, N., Frame, D., Huntingford, C., Lowe, J., Smith, S. and Allen, M. (2013) The role of short-lived climate pollutants in meeting temperature goals. Nature Climate Change, 3: 1021-1024.
• Kunreuther, H., Heal, G., Allen, M., Edenhofer, O., Field, C.B. and Yohe, G. (2013) Risk management and climate change. Nature Climate Change, 3: 447-450.
• Levy, A.A., Ingram, W., Jenkinson, M., Huntingford, C., Hugo Lambert, F., Allen, M. (2013) Can correcting feature location in simulated mean climate improve agreement on projected changes? Geophysical Research Letters, 40(2): 354-358.
• Otto, A., Otto, F.E.L., Boucher, O., Church, J., Hegerl, G., Forster, P.M., Gillett, N.P., Gregory, J., Johnson, G.C., Knutti, R., Lewis, N., Lohmann, U., Marotzke, J., Myhre, G., Shindell, D., Stevens, B. and Allen, M.R. (2013) Energy budget constraints on climate response. Nature Geoscience, 6: 415-416.
• Otto, A., Todd, B.J., Bowerman, N., Frame, D.J. and Allen, M.R. (2013) Climate system properties determining the social cost of carbon. Environmental Research Letters, 8(2).
• Otto, F.E.L., Jones, R.G., Halladay, K. and Allen, M.R. (2013) Attribution of changes in precipitation patterns in African rainforests. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society, B, 368(1625).
• Pretis, F. and Allen, M. (2013) Climate science: Breaks in trends. Nature Geoscience, 6: 992-993.
• Rupp, D.E., Mote, P.W., Massey, N., Otto, F.E.L. and Allen, M.R. (2013) Human Influence on the probability of low precipitation in the central United States in 2012. In, Explaining extreme events of 2012 from a climate perspective. Bulletin of the American Meteorology Society, 94, S2-S6, 2013.
• Yamazaki, K., Rowlands, D.J., Aina, T., Blaker, A.T., Bowery, A., Massey, N., Miller, J., Rye, C., Tett, S.F.B., Williamson, D., Yamazaki, Y.H. and Allen, M.R. (2013) Obtaining diverse behaviors in a climate model without the use of flux adjustments. Journal of Geophysical Research Atmosphere, 118(7): 2781-2793.
• Clark, G.L., Urwin, R., Allen, M.R., Wójcik, D., Molinari, C., and McGill, S.M. (2012) Project Telos: Addressing the Challenges of Transformation Through Sustainable Investing. Towers Watson, London
• Huntingford, C., Lowe, J.A., Gohar, L.K., Bowerman, N.H.A., Allen, M.R., Raper, S.C.B. and Smith, S.M. (2012) The link between a global 2°C warming threshold and emissions in years 2020, 2050 and beyond. Environmental Research Letters, 7(1).
• Otto, F.E.L., Massey, N., van Oldenborgh, G.J., Jones, R.G. and Allen, M.R. (2012) Reconciling two approaches to attribution of the 2010 Russian heat wave. Geophysical Research Letters, 39(L04702).
• Smith, S.M., Lowe, J.A., Bowerman, N.H.A., Gohar, L.K., Huntingford, C. and Allen, M.R. (2012) Equivalence of greenhouse-gas emissions for peak temperature limits. Nature Climate Change, 2: 535-538.
• Watson, P.A.G., Karoly, D.J., Allen, M.R., Faull, N., Lee, D.S. (2012) Quantifying uncertainty in future Southern Hemisphere circulation trends. Geophysical Research Letters, 39(23).
• Allen, M.R. (2011) The scientific basis for climate change liability. In, Lord, R., Goldberg, S., Rajamani, L. and Brunnée, J. (eds.) Climate Change Liability: Transnational law and practice. Cambridge University Press. 690 pp. ISBN: 9781107017603.
• Pall, P., Aina, T., Stone, D.A., Stott, P.A., Nozawa, T., Hilberts, A.G.J., Lohmann, D. and Allen, M.R. (2011) Anthropogenic greenhouse gas contribution to flood risk in England and Wales in autumn 2000. Nature, 470: 382-385.
• Bowerman, N.H.A., Frame, D.J., Huntingford, C., Lowe, J.A. and Allen, M.R. (2010) Cumulative carbon emissions, emissions floors and short-term rates of warming: implications for policy. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A, 369(1934): 45-66.
• Ricke, K.L., Morgan, M.G. and Allen, M.R. (2010) Regional climate response to solar-radiation management. Nature Geoscience, 3(8): 537-541.
• Allen, M., Frame, D., Frieler, K., Hare, W., Huntingford, C., Jones, C., Knutti, R., Lowe, J., Meinshausen, M., Meinshausen, N. and Raper, S. (2009) The exit strategy. Nature Reports Climate Change, 5.
• Allen, M.R., Frame, D.J. and Mason, C.F. (2009) The case for mandatory sequestration. Nature Geoscience, 2(12): 813-814.
• Allen, M.R., Frame, D.J., Huntingford, C., Jones, C.D., Lowe, J.A., Meinshausen, M. and Meinshausen, N. (2009) Warming caused by cumulative carbon emissions towards the trillionth tonne. Nature, 458: 1163-1166.
• Lambert, F.H. and Allen, M.R. (2009) Are changes in global precipitation constrained by the tropospheric energy budget? Journal of Climate, 22(3): 499-517.
• Meinshausen, M., Meinshausen, N., Hare, W., Raper, S.C.B., Frieler, K., Knutti, R., Frame, D.J. and Allen, M.R. (2009) Greenhouse-gas emission targets for limiting global warming to 2 degrees C. Nature, 458: 1158-1162.
• Stone, D.A., Allen, M.R., Stott, P.A., Pall, P., Min, S.K., Nozawa, T. and Yukimoto, S. (2009) The Detection and Attribution of Human Influence on Climate*. Annual Review of Environment and Resources, 34: 1-16.
• Frame, D. and Allen, M.R. (2008) Climate change and global risk. Chapter 13 in, Bostrom, N. and Milan, M. (eds.) Global Catastrophic Risks. Oxford University Press, Oxford. pp. 265-285. ISBN: 978-0-19-857050-9.
• Sanderson, B.M., Piani, C., Ingram, W.J., Stone, D.A. and Allen, M.R. (2008) Towards constraining climate sensitivity by linear analysis of feedback patterns in thousands of perturbed-physics GCM simulations. Climate Dynamics, 30(2-3): 175-190.
• Allen, M.R. and Frame, D.J. (2007) Call off the quest. Science, 318(5850): 582-583.
• Allen, M.R., Pall, P., Stone, D.A., Scott, P., Frame, D.J., Min, S-K., Nozawa, T. and Yukimoto, S. (2007) Scientific challenges in the attribution of harm to human influence on climate. Pennsylvania Law Review,, 155(6): 1353-1400.
• Frame, D.J., Faull, N.E., Joshi, M.M. and Allen, M.R. (2007) Probabilistic climate forecasts and inductive problems. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 365(1857): 1971-1992.
• Pall, P., Allen, M.R. and Stone, D.A. (2007) Testing the Clausius--Clapeyron constraint on changes in extreme precipitation under CO 2 warming. Climate Dynamics, 28(4): 351-363.
• Piani, C., Sanderson, B., Giorgi, F., Frame, D.J., Christensen, C. and Allen, M.R. (2007) Regional probabilistic climate forecasts from a multithousand, multimodel ensemble of simulations. Journal of Geophysical Research, 112(D2408).
• Allen, M., Andronova, N., Booth, B., Dessai, S., Frame, D., Forest, C., Gregory, J., Hegerl, G., Knutti, R. and Piani, C. (2006) Observational constraints on climate sensitivity. Avoiding dangerous climate change. Cambridge University Press. 281-290.
• Knutti, R., Meehl, G.A., Allen, M.R. and Stainforth, D.A. (2006) Constraining climate sensitivity from the seasonal cycle in surface temperature. Journal of Climate, 19(17): 4224-4233.
• Lopez, A., Tebaldi, C., New, M., Stainforth, D., Allen, M. and Kettleborough, J. (2006) Two approaches to quantifying uncertainty in global temperature changes. Journal of climate, 19(19): 4785-4796.
• Massey, N., Aina, T., Allen, M., Christensen, C., Frame, D., Goodman, D., Kettleborough, J., Martin, A., Pascoe, S. and Stainforth, D. (2006) Data access and analysis with distributed federated data servers in climateprediction.net. Advances in Geosciences, 8: 49-56.
• Stainforth, D.A., Allen, M.R., Frame, D.J. and Piani, C. (2006) Risks associated with stabilisation scenarios and uncertainty in regional and global climate change impacts. Avoiding dangerous climate change Schellnhuber H.-J, Cramer W, Nakiccnovic N, Wigley T, Yohe G.W: 315-320.
• Piani, C., Frame, D.J., Stainforth, D.A. and Allen, M.R. (2005) Constraints on climate change from a multi-thousand member ensemble of simulations. Geophysical Research Letters, 32(23).
• Stainforth, D.A., Aina, T., Christensen, C., Collins, M., Faull, N., Frame, D.J., Kettleborough, J.A., Knight, S., Martin, A., Murphy, J.M., Piani, C., Sexton, D., Smith, L.A., Spicer, R.A., Thorpe, A.J. and Allen, M.R. (2005) Uncertainty in predictions of the climate response to rising levels of greenhouse gases. Nature, 433: 403-406.
• Lambert, F.H., Stott, P.A., Allen, M.R. and Palmer, M.A. (2004) Detection and attribution of changes in 20th century land precipitation. Geophysical Research Letters, 31(10).
• Stott, P.A., Stone, D.A. and Allen, M.R. (2004) Human contribution to the European heatwave of 2003. Nature, 432(7017): 610-614.
• Allen, M. (2003) Liability for climate change. Nature, 421(6926): 891-892.
• Allen, M.R. and Ingram, W.J. (2002) Constraints on future changes in climate and the hydrologic cycle. Nature, 419(6903): 224-232.
• Allen, M.R., Kettleborough, J.A. and Stainforth, D.A. (2002) Model error in weather and climate forecasting. ECMWF Predictability of Weather and Climate Seminar.
• Allen, M.R., Stott, P.A., Mitchell, J.F.B., Schnur, R. and Delworth, T.L. (2002) Quantifying uncertainties in climate system properties with the use of recent climate observations. Science, 295: 113-117.
• Stott, P.A., Tett, S.F.B., Jones, G.S., Allen, M.R., Mitchell, J.F.B. and Jenkins, G.J. (2000) External control of twentieth century temperature by natural and anthropogenic forcings. Science, 290: 2133-2137.
• Allen, M.R. and Tett, S.F.B. (1999) Checking for model consistency in optimal fingerprinting. Climate Dynamics, 15(6): 419-434.
• Tett, S.F.B., Stott, P.A., Allen, M.R., Ingram, W.J. and Mitchell, J.F.B. (1999) Causes of twentieth-century temperature change near the Earth's surface. Nature, 399(6736): 569-572.