Background

Developing countries are particularly vulnerable to climate change impacts because of their exposure to extreme weather events and dependence on natural resources. Although communities in Africa may have a greater ability to adapt to changes in climate than widely appreciated, the region has more climate-sensitive economies than any other continent (IPCC, 2001). Understanding how societies will adapt to climate change, and how successful adaptations can be facilitated, is a critical element of research and increasingly of policy and practice in response to the impacts of global climate change. Local and regional governments and aid organisations have a particular interest in developing policy and practical responses that simultaneously enhance the capacity to adapt, the sustainability of livelihoods, and equity.

Building on the respective transdisciplinary expertise of the research partners, we focus on southern Africa, an environment with a strong climate (arid to humid) gradient and a record of marked recent climatic disturbances (droughts and floods). In ESRC-funded research, Adger and Kelly (1999) have indicated that between and within-country, indicators of vulnerability and adaptive capacity need to be sophisticated and sensitive to difference. In response to this, Tyndall project T1.11 is developing new national level indicators to capture more effectively the dimensions of vulnerability and adaptive capacity. In addition, a strategic assessment with the Tyndall Adaptation Theme is currently being proposed to illuminate the equity and justice implications. Recent ESRC and DFID funded research (the PANRUSA project) has recognised the complexity of reactionary and anticipatory responses of natural resource-dependent societies to climatic disturbances and land degradation (Thomas et al., 2002; Sporton and Thomas, 2002).

Thus socio-economic and social capital indicators of vulnerability and adaptive capacity need to incorporate and be tested against this complexity on the ground, including intra-country variability in response, and the conditions and circumstances that frame such responses to climate impacts. The proposed research will make this contribution and consequently will add to the development and robustness of theories and models of adaptive capacity. The research uses a combination of climatic and ecological modelling by partners in the project to identify appropriate study locations and by field-based investigations into elements of criticality and adaptive capacity, including social capital and institutional responses to climate-related risk.